Blogs

• Predict the final outcome of negotiations
• Understand opportunities, threats and issues that may arise
• Identify and stress-test proactive strategies

 

Outcome Business War Games
Christiansvej 28
2920 Charlottenlund Denmark

Telephone: +45 27 28 39 18
E-mail: [email protected]

www.outcomewargames.com

 

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011), “Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts”. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 69-80.

 

Schwarz, Jan Oliver. (2009), "Business wargaming: developing foresight within a strategic simulation". Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Volume 21, Number 3, pp. 291-305.

 

Tressler, David M. (2007), "Negotiation in the new strategic environment: Lessons from Iraq. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army.

 

Pinker, Edieal J. (2007), "An Analysis of Short-Term Responses to Threats of Terrorism". Management Science, Vol 5, No. 6. pp. 865-880.

 

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). “Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts”, Interfaces, 37, 287-299.

 

Green, K. C. (2005), “Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgment for forecasting decisions in conflicts,” International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463-472.

 

Trotman, Ken T. (2005),“Auditor negotiations: An examination of the efficacy of intervention methods”.The Accounting Review, Vol. 80, No. 1. pp. 349-367.

 

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2005), ”The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts?” Foresight, 2, 50-52.

 

Miller, Ken & Don Brown. (2003), "Risk Assessment War Game (RAW)". US Army & University of Virgina.

 

Green, K. C. (2002).“Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: A comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgment”. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344.

 

Armstrong, J. S. (2002),“Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judg-ment,” International Journal of Forecasting, 18 (3), 345-242.

 

Armstrong, J. S. (2001). “Role playing: A method to forecast decisions.” In Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 15-30.

 

Armstrong, J. S. (2001).“Combining forecasts.” In Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 417-439.

 

Babcock, L., Loewenstein, G., Issacharoff, S., & Camerer, C. (1995). “Biased judgments of fairness in bargaining.” The American Economic Review, 85(5), 1337-1343.

 

Bennett, Robert J. (1991),“Simulated Negotiations: A Measure of their Effectiveness on Negotiated Outcome”. Navel Postgraduate School.

 

Singer, Alan E. (1990). "Forecasting Competitor's Actions: An evaluation of alternative ways of analyzing business competition". International Journal of Forecasting, 75-88.

 

Armstrong, J.S. (1987),”Forecasting Methods For Conflict Situations”, in G. Wright and P. Ayton (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting, 157-176.

 

Armstrong, J.S. (1980), “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecast-ing,” Technology Review, June/July, 16-24.

 

Schelling, T.C. (1961).“Experimental Games and Bargaining theory. World Politics, XIV(1), 47-68.

Sample of Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies

 

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011), “Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts”. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 69-80.

 

Schwarz, Jan Oliver. (2009), "Business wargaming: developing foresight within a strategic simulation". Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Volume 21, Number 3, pp. 291-305.

 

Tressler, David M. (2007), "Negotiation in the new strategic environment: Lessons from Iraq. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army.

 

Pinker, Edieal J. (2007), "An Analysis of Short-Term Responses to Threats of Terrorism". Management Science, Vol 5, No. 6. pp. 865-880.

 

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). “Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts”, Interfaces, 37, 287-299.

 

Green, K. C. (2005), “Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgment for forecasting decisions in conflicts,” International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463-472.

 

Trotman, Ken T. (2005),“Auditor negotiations: An examination of the efficacy of intervention methods”.The Accounting Review, Vol. 80, No. 1. pp. 349-367.

 

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2005), ”The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts?” Foresight, 2, 50-52.

 

Miller, Ken & Don Brown. (2003), "Risk Assessment War Game (RAW)". US Army & University of Virgina.

 

Green, K. C. (2002).“Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: A comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgment”. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344.

 

Armstrong, J. S. (2002),“Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judg-ment,” International Journal of Forecasting, 18 (3), 345-242.

 

Armstrong, J. S. (2001). “Role playing: A method to forecast decisions.” In Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 15-30.

 

Armstrong, J. S. (2001).“Combining forecasts.” In Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 417-439.

 

Babcock, L., Loewenstein, G., Issacharoff, S., & Camerer, C. (1995). “Biased judgments of fairness in bargaining.” The American Economic Review, 85(5), 1337-1343.

 

Bennett, Robert J. (1991),“Simulated Negotiations: A Measure of their Effectiveness on Negotiated Outcome”. Navel Postgraduate School.

 

Singer, Alan E. (1990). "Forecasting Competitor's Actions: An evaluation of alternative ways of analyzing business competition". International Journal of Forecasting, 75-88.

 

Armstrong, J.S. (1987),”Forecasting Methods For Conflict Situations”, in G. Wright and P. Ayton (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting, 157-176.

 

Armstrong, J.S. (1980), “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecast-ing,” Technology Review, June/July, 16-24.

 

Schelling, T.C. (1961).“Experimental Games and Bargaining theory. World Politics, XIV(1), 47-68

In a Negotiation War Game the company's own employees become involved in the actual analysis by acting partly as the company itself, partly as the other negotiating party. On the basis of an advanced forecasting method in which stake­hold­er information, issue understanding, and inter­active simu­lations are combined, the outcome of negotiations can be rendered probable and thus contribute to the company's handling of negotiations.

 

During the past 60 years, the method has proved indispensable to the major part of the US Fortune 500 companies. The most successful companies in the world have used the method to generate forecasts to better tactical and strategic decision making. The method is also frequently used by negotiation experts, because of the methods great accuracy when predicting outcomes of complicated negotiations. Finally the method is frequently used by the US army and CIA to predict the actions of terrorists and insurgents in critical situations.